Rebuild 4.0

Im back... and the Oilers are still bad. How is this possible?!? I havent posted in 4 years and looking back over the posts its almost comical. If you would have told me back in 2008 to 2012 that the Oilers would get a player as good as Connor McDavid I would have asked you how many cups we'd win. But Peter Chiarelli took an excellent opportunity in 2015 and absolutely boned it. So where do the Oilers go from here. Failure is the best way to learn and we can only hope Katz and Nicholson get it right on their next GM choice. As a fan I'd simply like to enjoy watching games again. That involves winning and its been a long hard grind since 2006 save for the spring of 2017. This blog is my way of documenting my opinions and see how they age. I just read over my old blog posts and man some of them were through rose colored fan glasses. You always hope for the best - maybe he can continue this PDO heater right?!? I also express my opinions (mostly complain) on Twitter from time to time. Looking back, I was very critical of the Hall trade

Canadian teams watch the American teams play in the playoffs because they arent nearly as smart as their counterpart https://t.co/tjEstK8buV

— Sean Solbak (@frozenpools) June 29, 2016

I think Im gonna switch to being an NFL fan. Suffered through age 25-35 of the Oilers for them to do this?!?

— Sean Solbak (@frozenpools) June 29, 2016

I also said the Lucic contract better be moveable.

If the Oilers really go $6x7 on Lucic, I hope they front load it so its moveable if needbe.

— Sean Solbak (@frozenpools) July 1, 2016

Turns out it isnt. But I wasnt right RE the Reinhart trade especially given the quality of talent that was available at pick 16 in 2015.

The #Oilers trade today isnt the worst. Draft + 4/5 are key dev years for D. Griffin can play next year and UFA crop is light.

— Sean Solbak (@frozenpools) June 27, 2015

It will all depend on how well Griffin develops. The price is high though so they need to be right.

— Sean Solbak (@frozenpools) June 27, 2015

Paying in full price and being wrong was a common result of all Chiarelli's moves. But what does it mean when a fan like me can look at a significant move and instantly bash it, whats going on with management?

As CTO of a growing machine learning based startup, the biggest thing Ive learned is the importance of measuring success. New employees arrive with new ideas, opinions, methods of doing things. How do you know which ones to implement and how to know if they move the needle the right direction.

Its not easy.

For me there are 2 keys to this 1) give yourself enough data and visibility into the data to let you measure success and 2) measure often. You need good people to provide the right ideas and execute on but if the process and game-plan are off you are in charge. And for every big decision, you ultimately bear the responsibility of it. So be prepared.

Look at the Oilers cap management and trade record. What process and data led to these decisions? Where did it go wrong? I cant say as an outsider that I know the answer to that but the collection results sure dont speak well to the inputs into those decisions.

I can tell you with a GREAT DEAL more certainty and inside knowledge than "oh, I asked the GM at a season ticket holders meeting" that the Oilers do NOT meaningfully use analytics, and thanks to Chia, no longer even have the capacity to meaningfully use analytics. https://t.co/IacO8TGVeN

— Oilers Nerd Alert (@OilersNerdAlert) January 23, 2019

Ive followed along with the hockey analytics movement, helped organized the first AB analytics conference, contributed to puckiq.com (more on that later) and read Lowetide every day for over a decade. I can tell you there are a lot of big brains out there. Embrace analytics. So thats the biggest point I could make. I don't think the decision making has the right foundations behind it. And to be clear I mean a whole lot deeper than checking a players corsi.

The Edmonton Oilers are blessed with a star in Connor McDavid. His impact wont be that of a say Lebron James but in hockey his impact is in a class of its own. So I think the Oilers can be turned around in a 1-3 year window allowing for flexibility on time to clear cap space, acquire players and luck in drafting and development. With that in mind and by backing each decision made with analytics and improved data based inputs I think the Oilers should attempt the following:

1) Embrace skill, speed and possession hockey. Build a team that compliments McDavids strengths. Does this include Ken Hitchcock? I think it could. I dont think coaching has been the Oilers problem in a while.

2) Sell players with cap term and hit particularly those who don't fit point #1. In no order that includes: Lucic, Russell, Sekera, Manning, Spooner, Kassian, Petrovic, Benning, Reider, Brodziak, Koskinen and Talbot. Starting now.

3) Put Darnell Nurse and Jessie Puljurarvi on the block. But Id be tempted to see the value of these 2 players on the open market. Both have incredible physical tools but Im not 100% convinced the hockey IQ is there. In Jessie's case Id instruct my coach to play him 15+ min per game for the rest of the year to see if he can figure it out. The Oilers cant afford to bleed value on anymore deals so keeping both is a fine option.

4) Keep the 2019 pick. Picks are worth more to teams like Winnipeg and Edmonton. 1st round picks can yield value contracts who are your property for 8 years. That has too much value in a cap world. Especially to this team.

And good luck to the new GM. Your fans have been waiting a while.

2015 NHL Draft Timeline

Timeline of the NHL Entry draft in realtime as it happens on social media.

AB Analytics Conference

I'm in Palm Springs and while I sure cant complain, unfortunately I am unable to attend the AB Analytics conference in Calgary going on right now. The event is organized by Rob Vollman and is a great place to learn first hand from some of the innovators in the hockey analytics space. I particularly enjoyed the conversations between sessions. Its hockey nerd bliss! Kudos to Rob for organizing. Since I cannot attend I thought it would be fun to make a social media summary (below) which will live update during the event.

My best memory of Ryan Smyth

It was 2006.  I had planned the trip of a lifetime to go to the world cup.  That year I had also decided it was a good idea to buy playoff tickets to the Oilers.  Back then you could only buy all the games or none.  So I had tickets to the finals during our trip through Europe.  As an Oilers fan whose first memory of hockey was pretty much when Wayne Gretzky got traded, I've suffered through a lot and didnt want to miss the finals. I believe we left for London and it was 2-0 Canes.  We watched a couple games in London and Amsterdam, by fluke seeing several of the same people each game.  The only night I didn't watch the game was game 5, I fell asleep at a hostel in the red light district in Amsterdam that night.  It was OT, I said to a buddy "If the Oilers win I'm happy, if not I cant stand to watch.  If they win, I'm going to Brazil vs Australia in a couple days.".  The extra game meant I could sell another ticket on Kijiji and afford to go.  Fernando Pisani scored in OT and the girlfriend (now wife) and I were able to find scalper tickets.  The picture here is of our last night in Munich which was also game 7.  Its myself and some dude I never saw again.  Our train left Munich at 7am the following morning, and as a barely out of school newb to the workforce budget was a priority. The natural choice was to watch soccer all day in the fan zones and stay up to watch Game 7.  That day we met a ton of Canadians who wanted to watch the game as well as a crew of 8ish Aussies who came along. The Aussies all day sang this song, that always started out with the word 'Aussies' ... and it was to the tune of the song go west.  After a while, I noticed that the words were never the same. I asked him how he decided the words. He said, they are several staples but for the most part we just make them up kinda like the ole Chicago store song. I told him we needed to make an Oilers one and he was on board the process.  He said tell me something about the Oilers.  Our first story was about Ryan Smyth and how he lost his teeth from a shot by Pronger and how he picked his teeth up off the ice and didn't miss a shift.  I dont remember the words to that song.  I wish I did.  All I remember was 'Ryan Smyth he has no teeth' (to the tune of go west).  That stupid song was stuck in my head as well as our 2k6 travelling crew's head for several days.  What a great memory for a suffering Oilers fan.  Ryan Smyth was front and center, not the best player but the heart and soul of the team.

Off to the game tonight.  You'll be missed Smytty.

Draft a center

The Oilers lost 3-2 to the Ducks last night. It was a good game last night despite the result. As Lowetide points out, Taylor Hall is on a nice run with 17 shots and 5 points in the last 2 games. Its nice to see the kid line dominate despite it being almost all Taylor Hall. He sure makes Ebs and Nuge better but they compliment him nicely. Last night, I spent some time comparing Edmonton to Colorado. I'm still at a loss to explain the Oilers this season and the general idea behind my thoughts was to figure out what it would take for the Oilers to have an Avalanche type break out season. The obvious answer is luck. The Avs are riding good goaltending and thus their percentages will likely cause them to regress next year. This has been covered by others like MC79Hockey so I wont go into that. But the fact remains, 102 pts vs 61 pts is night and day especially given that the Avs drafted Mackinnon first overall last year. I'm gonna start with identifying areas that the Avs have done better at compared to the Oilers.

1) Goaltending

 As mentioned, the obvious difference between the Oilers and Avs is goaltending. Varlamov has been great and the Oilers goaltending was horrible until recently. That appears to be somewhat resolved now with Scrivens and Fasth.

2) drafting outside the first round

The Avs have drafted and developed O'Reily and Barrie in recent years as well as Stastny and McGinn prior to that. The Oilers deserve some credit for drafting Eberle but Musil, Lander and Pitlick dont appear to be impact players while other teams that have worse picks are getting better value. This is something that cant be fixed instantly.

3) Number of 2 way players in the top 6

Yakapov is a work in progress and Sam Gagner is a liability defensively. The gap between Gagner and O'Reily or Stastny is pretty large 5 on 5. O'Reily is one of the more underrated players in the league. Statsny is overpaid but still highly effective.

4) Strength at center

Nuge, Gagner, Gordon vs Mackinnon, Duchene, O'Reily, Stastny is a daunting difference.  Gordon was a great add by MacT. I like him a lot but he doesn't deliver a ton offensively. The really good teams have 3C who can deliver points and are effective 2 way players. Both Gordon and Gagner are fairly one dimensional. Nuge struggled this year and I still expect big things. One a side note, if Paul Statsny becomes available as a UFA, the Oilers should go after him. The end result is likely an overpay but he'd cost nothing to add.

5) Eric Johnson

As a 1st overall he's been a bit of a bust but he is still playing top pairing D in Colorado. Despite the missed season due to the golf injury he is still a 2006 draft pick who has finally become an impact player in the last couple years. The Oilers are going to need Darnell Nurse to arrive prior to the 2018 season. The other top pairing defender in Colorado is Jan Hedjda who I don't consider a huge upgrade on Petry.  Oilers lack a clear top pairing D.

 

Overall, I think the biggest gap between the clubs is the center position. The defense also needs to be addressed but they do have cap space and assets required to land one via trade. The Oilers pipeline is also full of dmen. There are no top 6 forwards ready to challenge for minutes while the d pipeline has Klefbom, Marincin (who is here to stay), Nurse and Simpson. If I'm MacT, I'd be looking at drafting Lion Draisaitl. He has decent size and his scouting report reads as a 2 way C. This type of player I think would compliment Yakapov well. Yakapov did will last year with Horcoff on his wing and I think he will be most effective playing with 2 guys who are responsible defensively who look to get him to shoot in the offensive end. As a likely top 3 pick, Draisaitl will bring a lot of offense as well. The other argument for drafting a center instead of say Ekblad is that D take a lot longer to develop. Eric Johnson is likely the high end in terms of development length but even the shorter term (3 years) is too long given that Taylor Hall is ready to lead the team. He was probably ready last year. He just needs a supporting cast.

The quickest way for the Oilers to improve is to draft a center. Its also the Oilers biggest need.

Draft a center.

Off to Sweden

I'm heading off to Sweden and to the Czech Republic to do some traveling and watch some hockey. This will be after a pit stop in Dublin for St Patty's day. My goal for the trip was to get a game or two to watch Linus Omark play in anticipation of him coming to North America next year. Unfortunately Lulea is down 3-1 in the series vs Frolunda and the odds of them still being in the playoffs when I get there aren't looking good. Here is a video montantage of some of Omarks highlights:



I wish I had a video montage.

It will be interesting to see how Omark's size will be effected by the North American game. He does have great speed and skill. On a team full of smurfs, the Oilers may not have room for another undersized forward but if Omark is good enough to play they'll find room for him ... I'd hope. I'll post here some hockey highlights from the trip and if I get to see Lulea play, I'll report my take here.

As for the Oilers, they still owe me for losing the SCF when I went to the world cup in Germany. They have a relatively easy schedule but have only won 3 of their last 11. Last nights game against Atlanta had some promising moments, like Patrick O'Sullivans goal and the play of the 4th line (18-51-27). But that loss cant happen if the Oilers are serious about the playoffs. Atlanta is 10 points back of the Oilers, on the road and missing their star player Kovalchuk. Reasoner getting the winner was too predictable. The Oilers dominated the overtime and I'm fairly sure would have won the shootout emphasizing the error made by Gilbert and Cogs on OT winner. Its interesting that now that the offense seems to be back, they are starting to give up 3-4 goals a game along with several high quality chances. The Oilers are gonna need to wake up, especially Ales Hemsky who has been MIA for about 10 games now. Ales Kotalik had some good chances but is running out of time with Hemsky and needs to produce for the Oilers sake and for his impending UFA status. I'm hoping for a pleasant surprise when I come back. An appearance in the playoffs would be fun and incredibly valuable for the young players. Go Oilers!

Buyers or sellers?

I have a couple buddies who are Flames fans (poor things) and we often spend many hours trash talking hockey over email. 95% of everything we say is junk, "Horcoffs a first line goonie", "Phaneuf gets the sloppy second assist" ect. But the other day, I was presented with the following information. Edmonton Oilers since 2000:

2008-09 - 8th Position (currently)
2007-08 - 9th Position
2006-07 - 12th Position
2005-06 - 8th Position (cup run)
2003-04 - 9th Position
2002-03 - 8th Position
2001-02 - 9th Position

Edmonton's Average Position Last Seven Seasons: 9.00

That my friends is the recipe for mediocrity. You have an ok season, make or barely make the playoffs and you don't get much help back via the draft. Draft position is not the key to organization stability - teams like New Jersey, Detroit, San Jose, Dallas ect. have remained dominant franchises for the past decade without a top end draft pick - but teams like Chicago, Washington and Pittsburgh are proving it to be a recipe for success.

Going back briefly to New Jersey, Detroit, SJ and Dallas I think the Oilers are building properly. They seem to be building from the back-end out. Their top 4 D, is solid. The old saying goes "offense wins games defense wins championships" and it still applies. Detroit, Dallas and New Jersey have always had a strong defense. SJ has never had the dominant defenseman but was 3rd best in GA last season and is again up there this year. I don't think this is a coincidence. While Kevin Lowe has failed in having a balance roster, that is more a reflection of the team not being good. His approach to building a team is solid and with Chris Pronger would have been much easier.

I've said many times that the Oilers are good enough to be a playoff team. With the injury to Visnovsky, that opinion is now in jeopardy. The organization is faced with the question of being sellers or buyers come deadline day. Frankly the only way they lose is by doing nothing.

Arguments for a reload

I dont use the road reload because the Oilers don't need to rebuild - they have a solid core. However, the Oilers are 4 points removed from 14th in the West. 5th last in the league and a shot at Taveres has to be a tempting option. Erik Cole should have good trade value and Staois, Pisani et al would be good salary dumps. Another interesting point is that the Oilers team in 05-06 was much better than 8th (obviously). What did they do before the season? They created about 15 million dollars in cap space. With the global recession and impending decline in NHL salary cap there is going to be a lot of good players available for teams with money. Right now the Oilers have money but no cap space. Reloading is also the best option for trying to find that top-end player to play with Ales Hemsky.

Arguments for a playoff push

This team has 2-3 glaring weaknesses and is otherwise a solid team. A center who can win faceoffs and kill penalties and a scoring forward would help this team immensely. That player IMO doesn't need to be a veteran. Roloson has proven he is a good playoff goaltender and this team still has several key ingredients from the 06 Stanley Cup run who would be hungry and game for the playoffs. The Oilers are well stocked with assets who should have enough cachet to fill the voids that are so frustrating to watch. Another undervalued intangible that comes with the playoffs is that the development Oilers young players with no playoff experience (Gilbert, Smid, Grebeshkov, Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson, Brodziak) would be accelerated.

My guess is that the Oilers make a push this season. There are many people in the organization whose jobs are on the line. If that's the case, I see no reason to wait a month till the deadline.